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Longevity

The one number that predicts how long you'll live

By Tom Collins, Co-Founder and Head Coach 6 min read

So, firstly I would say this. If I could get you to care about one measure of your health, it would not be your weight on the scales. It would be your cardio fitness.

BLUF: your cardiorespiratory fitness, often measured as VO2 max, is one of the strongest predictors we have of how long, and how well, you will live. Stronger than smoking, blood pressure or diabetes.

That being said, do not worry about the technical name. The idea is simple: how good your body is at taking in and using oxygen when you push it. And the good news is you can build it.

Why it matters this much

The research here is genuinely striking. In one large study of over 120,000 people, those with the highest fitness had roughly an 80% lower risk of dying over the follow-up than the least fit.

And it keeps going. Every meaningful step up in fitness is linked to around a 13 to 15% drop in the risk of early death. Researchers have repeatedly found low fitness to be a bigger risk factor than smoking, high cholesterol or high blood pressure.

The key message here is: this is not a vanity metric. It is one of the clearest signals of how much life, and how much good living, you have ahead of you.

What it actually is, in plain terms

Think of your body as an engine. Your cardio fitness is the size of that engine: how much oxygen you can take in and put to work when you are going hard.

A bigger engine means you climb the stairs without gasping, you keep up with your kids, and years from now you are still moving under your own steam. It is the difference between ageing into frailty and ageing into freedom.

The best part: you can build it

You are not stuck with the fitness you have. The body responds at any age.

Here's what to do:

  • Move most days. Regular activity is the foundation.
  • Get your heart rate up a few times a week. A brisk walk, a bike ride, a jog, anything that leaves you a little out of breath.
  • Add the odd harder effort. Short bursts where you push, then recover, build the engine fastest.
  • Be consistent. This is the one that matters most. A steady habit beats the occasional heroic session every time.

And there is no real ceiling. The evidence suggests the fitter you get, the more benefit you keep gaining.

The takeaway

Of all the numbers you could track, your cardio fitness might be the one that matters most for a long, capable life. You cannot change your genes, but you absolutely can change your engine.

You don't have to have a great start, but you do have to start, to be great. A brisk walk today is a deposit in a very long-term account.

The author

Tom Collins

Co-Founder and Head Coach, Wayfinder

Former Army officer with twenty years of military leadership, and an endurance athlete across Ironman, ultra-marathon, Hyrox and CrossFit. Tom coaches busy professionals to reclaim their health through the pursuit of a meaningful physical challenge.

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